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accurate AI predictions

Mantic is a world-class technical team on a mission to solve the next AI grand challenge: predicting global events with superhuman accuracy, and deploying this capability to power radically improved decision-making in business and government.

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Example predictions

From ongoing tournaments against human superforecasters

Politics
Conflict
Economics
Business

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

Conflict

Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?

Business

On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?

Economics

Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?

Politics

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for META?

Business

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Conflict

How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?

Politics
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what mantic does

A new kind of foresight

Despite decades of progress in computer modelling, the best predictions in the messy world of human affairs still come from top human forecasters, who use reasoning and judgement.‍

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Mantic is building machines that can predict like an expert superforecaster but with digital speed and scale.

Mantic has an edge on topics where a purely data-driven approach is infeasible or insufficient.

We’ve developed our system to make medium term predictions (1 week - 1 year out) about geopolitics, business, policy, technology, and culture.

Performance

Benchmarking against human forecasters

Ranked 4th out of 539 humans in the Metaculus Cup—the best AI result to date—as reported by Bloomberg, The Guardian, and Time Magazine.

  • The Atlantic

We are setting new records for our tournament performance against human forecasters:

Metaculus Cup (Fall '25)

  • Ranked 4th / 539 entrants (top 1%), beating six pro forecasters
  • Highest ever AI score, and over double the next best AI entrant
  • Broke our own record set in the Summer Cup where we ranked 8th as the highest ever AI score
Topics covered:
  • Geopolitics
  • Elections
  • Technology
  • Energy

Market Pulse Challenge (Q4)

  • Ranked 17th / 147 entrants, beating two pro forecasters
  • Highest ever AI score, and over double the next best AI entrant
  • Broke our own record set in Q3 where we ranked 19th with the highest ever AI score
Topics covered:
  • Company earnings & revenues
  • Equity returns
  • Bond yields

AI enables us to scale across forecasting breadth, depth, and speed. Below is an example of a question we answered in the Metaculus Cup, where Mantic generated a fresh prediction every day, incorporating key developments in real time.

How much photovoltaic capacity will China  install in July 2025?
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Vector

Product

Providing foresight to decision-makers

We...
So that our users can be...
Solutions
Target
Horizon scan
Identify emerging issues based on what you care about
Early
Act on emerging risks and opportunities before others
Solutions
Eye
Forecast
Generate probabilistic predictions with clear reasoning and references
Informed
Make decisions confidently under uncertainty
Solutions
Chart
Monitor
Prioritise and update predictions as new information emerges
Fast
Adapt quickly when circumstances change

Emerging use cases for predictive intelligence

Mantic is built for teams operating under uncertainty, helping them cut through the noise, anticipate what’s ahead, and act with confidence.

Corporate
Finance
Government
Finance
Corporate
Government
Executives
Stay ahead of emerging issues and external forces affecting the business
  • Macroeconomic shifts affecting demand
  • Competitive moves by industry leaders
  • Major regulatory changes
  • Relevant geopolitical developments
  • Disruptive technologies and innovation
Finance
Traders
Surface market-moving events early at a macro or single stock level
  • Commodity supply disruptions
  • Legal rulings
  • Central bank decisions
  • Company announcements
  • Geopolitical events impacting markets
Finance
Investors
Anticipate company trajectories and monitor underlying assumptions
  • Revenue
  • EBITDA
  • Growth trajectory
  • Key external risks and opportunities
  • Industry trends
Finance
Corporate
Government
Researchers
Complement traditional models with AI predictions on judgment-driven issues
  • Economic growth and inflation outlook
  • Central bank policy and rate decisions
  • Policy and regulatory direction
  • Consumer demand and sentiment shifts
  • Geopolitical developments and risks
Corporate
Government
Strategists
Augment decision-making with forward-looking signals, enabling a living strategy
  • Competitor product launches
  • Customer behaviour shifts
  • Demand and growth dynamics
  • Industry consolidation and new entrants
  • Disruptive technologies and innovation
Corporate
Regulation & risk teams
Identify and track exogenous regulatory, legal, or operational risks
  • New industry regulations
  • Trade restrictions and tariffs
  • Litigation outcomes
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • Cybersecurity scenarios
Government
Policymakers
Anticipate global and regional geopolitical developments in real time
  • Election outcomes
  • Conflict escalation or ceasefires
  • Migration flows and demographic shifts
  • Sanctions and international policy changes
  • Energy and trade disruptions

A forecasting tool for navigating uncertainty

A generalist forecasting engine that reasons like a top human forecaster across domains, delivering clear, actionable insights.

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About us

Mantic is a startup founded in London in 2024, on a mission to solve forecasting and radically improve decision-making.

We raised $4 million in our pre-seed funding round, led by Episode 1, with participation from the US trading firm DRW and a range of angel investors including leading researchers at Google DeepMind and Anthropic.

Our Mission

01.
Solve
Superhuman accuracy
judgemental forecasting
predicting future events that require bespoke research and contextual understanding
02.
to
radically improve
better understanding of future
landscape & impact of decisions
decision-making
Across the economy

Our Team

Ben Day

CTO & co-founder

Before Mantic Ben was Head of Research at Foresight Data Machines, developing AI for optimizing steel production. Ben has a PhD in machine learning from the University of Cambridge, where he researched meta-learning and graph neural networks. Alongside this, he was a Research Consultant at Relation Therapeutics on AI for drug development.

Toby Shevlane

CEO & co-founder

Before Mantic Toby spent 2.5 years at Google DeepMind, where he worked as a Senior Research Scientist. There, he co-led a team within the Gemini effort that designed experiments to test Gemini’s dual-use capabilities. Before that, Toby’s PhD research at the University of Oxford was about the governance of LLM release decisions and potential misuse risks from AI.

Matthew Aitchison

Member of technical staff

Previously, Research Engineer at Google DeepMind. PhD from ANU in reinforcement learning.

Scott Jeen

Member of technical staff

Previously, PhD at University of Cambridge in reinforcement learning.

Vlad Bogolin

Member of technical staff

Previously, researcher at University of Oxford; Senior Engineer at MariaDB and FlowX.AI. PhD in AI from the Romanian Academy.

Max Clark

Member of technical staff

Previously, software engineer at Citadel. Highest dissertation mark at University of Cambridge CS undergrad for paper on AlphaGo.

Gabriel Fritsch

Member of technical staff

Former Goldman Sachs economist, Oxford economics PhD.

Jack Davison

Member of technical staff

Former Google and Palantir software engineer.

Lukas Alemu

Member of technical staff

Former data scientist at the Bank of England.

Xiaman Wu

Commercial and Operations

Former McKinsey consultant. Previously leading growth and product at healthtech and edtech start-ups.

We're hiring

Join us to solve the next AI grand challenge.

We’re assembling a world class team. If you’re energized by hard technical problems with potentially massive impact, we want to hear from you.

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    AI Engineer/Researcher
    Camden, London
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A new kind of  foresight

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What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for META?
Background

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key measure of corporate profitability and is closely tracked by investors. Meta had reported strong and growing earnings in recent quarters, driven by its advertising business and AI-driven improvements in engagement. Their EPS in the last four quarters have been: $6.03, $7.96, $6.43, $7.14

Predictions

Both Mantic and the Metaculus community centered forecasts around $6.5–$7.5 EPS, reflecting strong recent performance and continued growth in Meta’s advertising business. The community median was slightly higher, while Mantic was more conservative.

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However, Mantic assigned more probability to a downside tail outcome, identifying a new U.S. tax law that could increase Meta’s effective tax rate, creating a direct, one-off headwind to net income that could materially reduce reported EPS. The Metaculus community placed almost no weight on a very low outcome, focusing primarily on underlying business performance. 

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The resolution fell into this tail scenario, driven by a large one-off tax charge, where Mantic had assigned relatively greater probability than the Metaculus community.

Rationale quotes
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  • According to company filings, a new U.S. tax law will cause Meta's Q3 effective tax rate to be higher than the 11% rate in Q2. This provides a direct, mechanistic headwind to net income.
  • Large operating losses from the Reality Labs division are expected to increase in 2025. Additionally, the financial impact of a European regulatory ruling against Meta's advertising business remains a key uncertainty for the quarter.
Outcome

$1.05

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
Background

Since Hugo Chávez’s election in 1998, relations between the United States and Venezuela have been tense, with sanctions, political disputes, and U.S. support for Venezuela’s opposition. Tensions rose again in 2025 after new sanctions and the deployment of U.S. warships near Venezuela, prompting Maduro to mobilize militia forces and warn against a possible attack.

Predictions

From mid-September, Mantic held around 30%, reflecting the growing U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, including naval deployments and early strikes on vessels linked to Venezuela. The Metaculus community was initially more skeptical at around 20%.

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Mantic increased steadily, reaching 54% by mid-October, as continued kinetic strikes and expanding military operations demonstrated a clear willingness to use force and suggested a plausible escalation pathway toward strikes on Venezuelan territory.

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The Metaculus community remained lower at ~40% during this period, but rose sharply to ~50% by late October. Commenters pointed to the large-scale military buildup and operational signals which Mantic had already identified, bringing their estimates closer to Mantic’s.

Rationale quotes
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  • The US has deployed a carrier strike group and 15,000 personnel to the Caribbean. President Trump has stated that strikes on Venezuelan soil are "imminent".
  • Since September 2025, the US has conducted over 20 kinetic strikes against vessels linked to Venezuela in international waters, killing more than 80 people. Land-based strikes represent a credible next step in this escalation.
Outcome

Yes

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How many members of the Legislative Yuan will lose recall elections on July 26, 2025?
Background

In the Taiwanese legislature, the KMT was the largest party and broadly more pro-China than the DPP. Under the constitution, voters can trigger elections to recall their legislator. On 26 July 2025, there were recall votes for 25 KMT legislators. If 12 were recalled, the DPP would have a majority.

Predictions

The Metaculus community’s median estimate was that around 7 legislators would lose the recall vote (4-10 at 50% confidence interval). Mantic predicted fewer losses: 4 (2-7) reserving 10% for none.

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Mantic cited the high legal threshold for the recall to pass (25% of all registered voters in the district), and the historical rarity of successful recalls (it only found a single case).

Rationale quotes
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  • I estimate that 4 of the 24 legislators will be recalled, with a 50% confidence interval of 2 to 7 successful recalls.
  • The primary barrier to success is a high legal threshold; for a recall to pass, votes in favor must exceed 25% of all registered voters in that legislator’s district.
  • This mass recall campaign is unprecedented in Taiwan’s history. It is driven by civic groups with the full support of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
  • Historically, only one sitting national legislator has ever been successfully recalled in Taiwan, making the outcome of this large-scale effort highly uncertain.
Outcome

0 legistlators recalled.

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Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?
Background

Iran and Israel were engaged in military conflict from 13-24 June. During this time, Khamenei was hiding out at a secret location. There was ongoing speculation about his status, including his health and whether he had fled the country.

Predictions

Mantic’s predictions fluctuated throughout June with a median of 70%. Mantic’s automated research found that Khamenei usually appears in public 2-4 times per month. It decided there was an outside chance that health issues would prevent a public appearance, but that the most likely outcome was a TV appearance from a secure location in Tehran.

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The Metaculus community also fluctuated but was around 20-30% from 20 June onwards. Commenters highlighted the security concerns of a public appearance.

Rationale quotes
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  • Historically, Khamenei appears in public 2-4 times per month. This pattern suggests a high probability of at least one appearance in any 28-day period.
  • The recent Israeli strikes on June 13 have created strong, competing pressures. The regime has a powerful incentive to counter rumors of Khamenei's death by showing him in public.
  • The probability is significantly lower than the historical baseline due to risks from the attack. There is an outside chance he was injured, is too unwell to appear, or that security concerns will prevent any public events.
Outcome

Khamenei appearance (5 July): Attended a religious event in Tehran.

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On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?
Background

The UK’s Office for National Statistics had released jobs data in June showing 30.17m payrolled employees, a drop of 109k from the month before. Would the economic data continue falling?

Predictions

The Metaculus community put most weight on another fall, predicting -1.3k jobs as a median, and only a 3% chance of a >20k increase.

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Mantic was more uncertain and put greater weight than the community on a large increase (15% chance of a >20k increase).

Rationale quotes
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  • There is considerable uncertainty, with my 50% confidence interval ranging from a downward revision of 6,700 to an upward revision of 14,400.
  • The initial data showed a loss of 109,139 jobs, the largest monthly drop since May 2020. Historically, large negative estimates in this series are often revised upwards as more complete data is processed. ING Bank analysis supports this tendency.
  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has flagged the May 2025 estimate as "more uncertain than usual". This warning, combined with recent data quality issues at the ONS, elevates the probability of a significant revision in either direction.
  • Recent revisions provide conflicting signals. The March 2025 figure was revised upward, reducing job losses. Conversely, the April 2025 figure was revised downward, increasing job losses.
Outcome

+132k jobs, above expectations.

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Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?
Background

BRICS is a forum for coordination between major emerging economies, founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The growing influence of the BRICS on the global stage is viewed as in tension with US-led Western power.

Predictions

The Metaculus community hovered around 70% for much of June, motivated by the recent history of BRICS expansion efforts. The community prediction then dropped significantly when a commenter found evidence that Brazil (the host) was not in favour of new invitations.

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Mantic’s automated research had already found this out. Mantic also took a longer-term view of the history, which gives a lower rate of new invitations. Moreover, Mantic reasoned that BRICS’s new ‘partner country’ framework would reduce pressure for new invitations. Therefore, Mantic stayed around 20% throughout.

Rationale quotes
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  • Historically, invitations for full BRICS membership are infrequent. Out of 16 summits held since 2009, only two have resulted in such invitations (in 2010 and 2023).
  • The bloc has recently undergone a major expansion, adding five members in 2024 and Indonesia in 2025. Key members, including the host Brazil, have signaled a preference for consolidating these gains before another round of enlargement.
  • The creation of a 'partner country' framework in 2024 provides a formal way to engage with aspirant nations without granting them immediate full membership. This may reduce pressure for new invitations.
Outcome

No new members invited.

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Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?
Background

Revolut gained a provisional UK banking licence in July 2024. To become a fully-fledged bank, Revolut must complete a “mobilisation phase” which was expected to take up to 12 months. Until then, Revolut is restricted in the size of customer deposits it can hold, and doesn’t benefit from FSCS protection.

Predictions

Both Mantic and the Metaculus community started around 65% in mid-May. Mantic had researched the examples of Monzo and Starling which both completed successfully in 12 months.

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Mantic became increasingly skeptical the full licence would be granted in time, falling to 5% by mid-June, whereas the community remained more optimistic at 52%. Mantic’s skepticism was partly based on the scale and complexity of Revolut, which made it different from e.g. Monzo in 2017. Mantic’s prediction was also influenced by a statement from Revolut’s CFO anticipating approval ‘later this year’.

Rationale quotes
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  • Although challenger banks like Monzo and Atom had their restrictions lifted in under 12 months, I give these precedents less weight. Revolut's greater scale, product complexity, and past compliance issues suggest a more prolonged review by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA).
  • Statements from Revolut's CFO in April 2025 anticipate receiving full approval 'later this year,' which points to a timeline beyond the July deadline.
Outcome

No approval. Revolut faced regulatory delays, reportedly owing to the scale of its business.

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